Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction: Can Patrick Mahomes keep pace with Dak Prescott and the potent Dallas offense?

Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction: Can Patrick Mahomes keep pace with Dak Prescott and the potent Dallas offense?

Do not fall asleep on the couch during this game, folks. The Dallas Cowboys play host to the Kansas City Chiefs on CBS in what has to be one of the most anticipated regular-season games in a long, long time, and we’re not talking about just on Thanksgiving.

This is a battle of America’s teams, or perhaps America’s most hated teams. Whether you love them or hate them, it’s going to be hard to turn away on Thanksgiving. NFL past dynasty vs. present dynasty will clash in a critical game with a lot at stake and absolutely no shortage of star power. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Andy Reid, Jerry Jones, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and more.

Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives coming off historic comebacks. It’s also a homecoming for Texas native Mahomes. Taylor Swift’s fiancé will be playing. Post Malone will be performing at halftime. This game has something for everyone and I cannot wait.

Here’s everything you need to know to catch Chiefs-Cowboys on Turkey Day, including key matchups and our prediction:

Where to watch Cowboys vs. Chiefs live
Date: Thursday, Nov. 27 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Dallas)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+

Critical game in playoff hunt with both teams on outside looking in: No game has more at stake this week than the Cowboys and Chiefs. The Chiefs are 6-5 coming off the largest fourth-quarter comeback win of Mahomes’ career (down 11 vs. Colts) and the Cowboys are 5-5-1 after matching the largest comeback win in team history (down 21 vs. 8-2 Eagles). Both are on the outside of the playoffs looking in right now as the No. 10 seeds in their respective conferences. There’s work to do. The winner will enhance their playoff chances while a loss wouldn’t quite burst anyone’s playoff bubble, but would do a lot of damage, especially in Dallas’ case. Kansas City has more at stake than any team in the league right now. The Chiefs have historic streaks in jeopardy, going for an 11th straight playoff appearance, eighth straight AFC title game and fourth straight Super Bowl this year.

Chiefs taking over as America’s team: This game is going to bring families together. They might be united in their hatred toward two of the NFL’s most polarizing franchises, but at least they’ll be in it together. You could call this a clash of the NFL’s “evil empires,” two accomplished franchises with giant targets on their backs. A matchup of two of the NFL’s last three dynasties (sandwiching the 2001-19 Patriots in the middle). The Cowboys won three Super Bowls in the 90s (1992, 1993, 1995) and the Chiefs have won three since drafting Mahomes (2019, 2022, 2023). It’s been well documented the Dallas Cowboys are “America’s Team” but that torch has probably been passed to the Chiefs. Kansas City has made seven straight AFC title games, but Dallas hasn’t made an NFC Championship since 1995, the longest active drought in the conference. Mahomes has more Super Bowl MVPs (three) than Prescott has playoff wins (two). A game with more cinema than anyone could imagine will fittingly be played at the NFL’s greatest theater, Jerry World.

Mahomes homecoming: It will also be a homecoming for Mahomes. He grew up a diehard Cowboys fan just 1.5 hours from Dallas in Tyler, Texas. Remarkably, this is Mahomes’ first NFL start at AT&T Stadium. Be ready for a show though as he put up video game numbers in three games at Jerry World when he was at Texas Tech (all neutral site games vs. Baylor). Mahomes averaged over 500 passing yards and five touchdowns in three games at Jerry World, including a 586-yard, six-touchdown performance in the last game of his college career in 2016. Those are crazy numbers, even if it was on a team known for playing a lot of track meets.

George Pickens can continue to feast: If Mahomes doesn’t provide the fireworks, look to George Pickens, one of the best offseason additions in the entire NFL. He has the second-most receiving yards (1,054) in the NFL this season and the most ever in a player’s first 11 games in a Cowboys uniform. He’s quickly reaching star status, especially after the damage he did in the Cowboy’s Week 12 comeback vs. the Eagles, racking up 133 yards after Dallas trailed 21-0. He’s making a Terrell Owens or Randy Moss type impact and he’s seemingly good for one ‘You Got Moss’d’ moment every game. I’m not saying he’s going to have an impact like Moss infamously did at Dallas on Thanksgiving in 1998 (three catches, 163 yards, three touchdowns) but I wouldn’t be surprised if he caught a deep ball or two. It won’t be easy for Kansas City to take him away, either, with All-Pro Lamb on the other side.
Cowboys defense can continue turnaround with Quinnen Williams: It would have been easy to write off the Cowboys’ season a few weeks ago because of a slow start and horrible defense but Jerry Jones’ bold move to trade a first- and second-round pick at the deadline for Quinnen Williams has immediately paid off. The long-term ramifications could be a different story but for now Dallas has won two straight games since Williams made his season debut and the defense has been a big reason why. The Cowboys dominated the trenches vs. the Raiders and Eagles, ranking among the league leaders in pressures (38, third) and rushing yards allowed (45.0 per game, second) in the last two weeks. Rookie first-round pick Ashton Jeanty couldn’t get anything going vs. Dallas rejuvenated the line (six carries, 7 yards) and the same could be said of Saquon Barkley (10 carries, 22 yards). The Chiefs might not have a dynamic back, but Kareem Hunt has been lethal in short yardage situations and Mahomes is always a nightmare outside the pocket so Williams could have a huge impact again.

Travis Kelce’s first Thanksgiving game in the NFL
For all the star power on the field, one player might have the most off it. Kelce (and most of the Chiefs) will be playing in their first NFL game on Thanksgiving. Kelce may be slowing down at age 36, but he’s still finding a way to be productive. He leads the Chiefs with 674 yards receiving this season and is on pace to become the oldest tight end in NFL history with 1,000 yards receiving in a season. He’s never one to shy away from a big stage so expect him to be in the middle of all the action on Thursday.

Post Malone performs the halftime show
This is a game for everyone. From casual to hardcore NFL fans, Swifties and entertainment enthusiasts. Lifelong Cowboys fan Post Malone will have you covered with the latter as he takes the stage at Jerry World during halftime. Malone has performed at NFL events and games before, including last Christmas when he joined Beyoncé for her halftime show in Houston.

“I’m from Texas. I grew up a Cowboys fan and have been watching this halftime show for years,” Post Malone said. “It’s a real honor to be part of the Red Kettle Kickoff with The Salvation Army and the Dallas Cowboys and help bring hope to so many people.”

Post Malone has 18 Grammy nominations, 11 Billboard Music Awards, five American Music Awards and six MTV Video Music Awards. The “Sunflower” singer has explored many genres in his career, from rap to country to rock.

Post Malone joins some elite company as Cowboys Thanksgiving Day performers, dating back to Reba McEntire taking the stage in 1997. Randy Travis, Destiny’s Child, Sheryl Crow, Carrie Underwood, Kelly Clarkson, Enrique Inglesias, Selena Gomez and the Jonas Brothers are some other performers in the exclusive group.

It’s been an up-and-down season for both teams which is why they are hovering right around .500. It’s hard to know which version of each team is going to show up on Thursday, but I’m giving Dallas a slight edge. They play better at home (3-1-1 this season vs. 2-4 on road) while the Chiefs have struggled on the road (1-4). This will be a great test to see if the Cowboys’ turnaround on defense is legitimate and they could have a leg up in the trenches with Chiefs Pro Bowl guard Trey Smith expected to miss time with an ankle injury. The Cowboys could suddenly be looking more complete on both sides of the ball so I’m taking them to pull off the upset at home in a close game.